Résumé
Using climate-optimized flight trajectories is one essential measure to reduce aviation's climate impact. Detailed knowledge of temporal and spatial climate sensitivity for aviation emissions in the atmosphere is required to realize such a climate mitigation measure. The algorithmic Climate Change Functions (aCCFs) represent the basis for such purposes. This paper presents the first version of the Algorithmic Climate Change Function submodel (ACCF 1.0) within the European Centre HAMburg general circulation model (ECHAM) and Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model framework. In the ACCF 1.0, we implement a set of aCCFs (version 1.0) to estimate the average temperature response over 20 years (ATR20) resulting from aviation CO2 emissions and non-CO2 impacts, such as NOx emissions (via ozone production and methane destruction), water vapour emissions, and contrail cirrus. While the aCCF concept has been introduced in previous research, here, we publish a consistent set of aCCF formulas in terms of fuel scenario, metric, and efficacy for the first time. In particular, this paper elaborates on contrail aCCF development, which has not been published before. ACCF 1.0 uses the simulated atmospheric conditions at the emission location as input to calculate the ATR20 per unit of fuel burned, per NOx emitted, or per flown kilometre.In this research, we perform quality checks of the ACCF 1.0 outputs in two aspects. Firstly, we compare climatological values calculated by ACCF 1.0 to previous studies. The comparison confirms that in the Northern Hemisphere between 150–300 hPa altitude (flight corridor), the vertical and latitudinal structure of NOx-induced ozone and H2O effects are well represented by the ACCF model output. The NOx-induced methane effects increase towards lower altitudes and higher latitudes, which behaves differently from the existing literature. For contrail cirrus, the climatological pattern of the ACCF model output corresponds with the literature, except that contrail-cirrus aCCF generates values at low altitudes near polar regions, which is caused by the conditions set up for contrail formation. Secondly, we evaluate the reduction of NOx-induced ozone effects through trajectory optimization, employing the tagging chemistry approach (contribution approach to tag species according to their emission categories and to inherit these tags to other species during the subsequent chemical reactions). The simulation results show that climate-optimized trajectories reduce the radiative forcing contribution from aviation NOx-induced ozone compared to cost-optimized trajectories. Finally, we couple the ACCF 1.0 to the air traffic simulation submodel AirTraf version 2.0 and demonstrate the variability of the flight trajectories when the efficacy of individual effects is considered. Based on the 1 d simulation results of a subset of European flights, the total ATR20 of the climate-optimized flights is significantly lower (roughly 50 % less) than that of the cost-optimized flights, with the most considerable contribution from contrail cirrus. The CO2 contribution observed in this study is low compared with the non-CO2 effects, which requires further diagnosis.
Résumé
The successes of YOPP from the presentations and keynote presentations included * a better understanding of the impact of key polar measurements (radiosondes and space-based instruments such as microwave radiometers), and recent advancements in the current NWP observing system, achieved through coordinated OSEs in both polar regions (e.g., Sandu et al. 2021);* enhanced understanding of the linkages between Arctic and midlatitude weather (e.g., Day et al. 2019);* advancements in the atmosphere–ocean–sea ice and atmosphere–land–cryosphere coupling in NWP, and in assessing and recognizing the added value of coupling in Earth system models (e.g., Bauer et al. 2016);* deployment of tailored polar observation campaigns to address yet-unresolved polar processes (e.g., Renfrew et al. 2019);* progress in verification and forecasting techniques for sea ice, including a novel headline score (e.g., Goessling and Jung 2018);* advances in process understanding and process-based evaluation with the establishment of the YOPPsiteMIP framework and tools (Svensson 2020);* better understanding of emerging societal and stakeholder needs in the Arctic and Antarctic (e.g., Dawson et al. 2017);and * innovative transdisciplinary methodologies for coproducing salient information services for various user groups (Jeuring and Lamers 2021). The YOPP Final Summit identified a number of areas worthy of prioritized research in the area of environmental prediction and services for the polar regions: * coupled atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean models with an emphasis on advanced parameterizations and enhanced resolution at which critical phenomena start to be resolved (e.g., ocean eddies);* improved definition and representation of stable boundary layer processes, including mixed-phase clouds and aerosols;incorporation of wave–ice–ocean interactions;* radiance assimilation over sea ice, land ice, and ice sheets;understanding of linkages between polar regions and lower latitudes from a prediction perspective;* exploring the limits of predictability of the atmosphere–cryosphere–ocean system;* an examination of the observational representativeness over land, sea ice, and ocean;better representation of the hydrological cycle;and * transdisciplinary work with the social science community around the use of forecasting services and operational decision-making to name but a few. The presentations and discussions at the YOPP Final Summit identified the major legacy elements of YOPP: the YOPPsiteMIP approach to enable easy comparison of collocated multivariate model and observational outputs with the aim of enhancing process understanding, the development of an international and multi-institutional community across many disciplines investigating aspects of polar prediction and services, the YOPP Data Portal3 (https://yopp.met.no/), and the education and training delivered to early-career polar researchers. Next steps Logistical issues, the COVID-19 pandemic, but also new scientific questions (e.g., the value of targeted observations in the Southern Hemisphere), as well as technical issues emerging toward the end of the YOPP Consolidation Phase, resulted in the decision to continue the following three YOPP activities to the end of 2023: (i) YOPP Southern Hemisphere (YOPP-SH);(ii) Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (MIIP);of which YOPPSiteMIP is a critical element;and (iii) the Societal, Economics and Research Applications (PPP-SERA) Task Team.
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The Svalbard archipelago is a centre of global research on climate change and also an example of a rapidly changing Arctic area with tourism replacing the traditional mining industry. We compared the different development paths of the Norwegian (Longyearbyen and Ny-Ålesund) and Russian settlements (Barentsburg and Pyramida) on Spitsbergen as part of the Svalbard archipelago using demographic and socio-economic data until 2022 when available, but not focusing on the impacts of COVID-19 and changing geopolitics after 2022. We analysed strategy documents produced by Norway and Russia and by organisations connected to Svalbard. The analysis continued by scrutinising the statistical data available to ascertain if this supported the strategic goals outlined in the documents. Data collection was by direct enquiry to national statistical bureaus, agencies and institutions in Norway and Russia. Secondary data were collected from media publications and social media accounts. Statistics Norway provided very detailed data on demographics and industrial structure, turnover, investments and comprehensive statistics on employees by industry on Norwegian settlements on Svalbard. The results revealed disparities in socio-economic development, striking differences in data availability and in transparency between the Norwegian and Russian settlements. The population in the Norwegian settlements continued to grow during the period 1990–2022 with an increasing number of foreign nationals, and the population in the Russian settlements decreased by 85% at the same time period. The Norwegian settlements exemplify a diversified economy with a growing private sector, and the Russian settlements continued to rely on the town-forming Russian state unitary coal mining enterprise, Trust Arktikugol. While Svalbard presented a prime example of open data and transparency in the environmental sciences, the socio-economic and demographic statistics were lagging behind. Several practical proposals are presented for improved data collection on the Svalbard settlements.
Résumé
Over the last couple of decades, polar tourism has significantly grown in the number of visitors and diversified in terms of the tourism activities offered. The COVID-19 pandemic brought polar tourism to a halt and has prompted researchers, operators and policy-makers alike to reflect on how Arctic and Antarctic tourism have developed, how they are being managed and governed and, importantly, how tourism operators influence polar socio-ecological systems. Given the dominance of ship-based tourism over other types of tourism in the Polar Regions, we discuss the cornerstones of how polar ship-based tourism has developed over the last 50 years and explore the relevant international and regional governance regimes in this article. We identify which positive and negative biophysical, socio-cultural and economic impacts arising from polar tourism have been identified by researchers. It is difficult, if not impossible, to disentangle impacts caused by tourism alone from those that result from the interactions of multiple pressures at all levels (local, regional and global), and more research is needed to develop reliable and effective indicators to monitor tourism impacts. In addition, a better understanding is needed about the role tourist experiences might play in potentially encouraging long-term positive behavioural changes among visitors to the Polar Regions. The COVID-19 pandemic has provided an important opportunity to review polar tourism development and management, and to ask whether an emphasis should be placed on ‘degrowth' of the sector in the future.
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Contrary to most soils, permafrost soils have the atypical feature of being almost entirely deprived of soil fauna. Abiotic constraints on the fate of permafrost carbon after thawing are increasingly understood, but biotic constraints remain scarcely investigated. Incubation studies, essential to estimate effects of permafrost thaw on carbon cycling, typically measure the consequences of permafrost thaw in isolation from the topsoil and thus do not account for the effects of altered biotic interactions because of e.g. colonization by soil fauna. Microarthropods facilitate the dispersal of microorganisms in soil, both on their cuticle (ectozoochory) and through their digestive tract (endozoochory), which may be particularly important in permafrost soils, considering that microbial community composition can strongly constrain permafrost biogeochemical processes.Here we tested how a model species of microarthropod (the CollembolaFolsomia candida) affected aerobic CO2 production of permafrost soil over a 25 d incubation. By using Collembola stock cultures grown on permafrost soil or on an arctic topsoil, we aimed to assess the potential for endo- and ectozoochory of soil bacteria, while cultures grown on gypsum and sprayed with soil suspensions would allow the observation of only ectozoochory.The presence of Collembola introduced bacterial amplicon sequence variants (ASVs) absent in the no-Collembola control, regardless of their microbiome manipulation, when considering presence–absence metrics (unweighted UniFrac metrics), which resulted in increased species richness. However, these introduced ASVs did not induce changes in bacterial community composition as a whole (accounting for relative abundances, weighted UniFrac), which might only become detectable in the longer term.CO2 production was increased by 25.85 % in the presence of Collembola, about half of which could be attributed to Collembola respiration based on respiration rates measured in the absence of soil. We argue that the rest of the CO2 being respired can be considered a priming effect of the presence of Collembola, i.e. a stimulation of permafrost CO2 production in the presence of active microarthropod decomposers. Overall, our findings underline the importance of biotic interactions in permafrost biogeochemical processes and the need to explore the additive or interactive effects of other soil food web groups of which permafrost soils are deprived.
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Gjelsvik occupied the dual role of the journal’s chief editor and chairman of its editorial board, and the remaining board members were NPI scientists and the institute’s communications officer, who was also the journal’s managing editor and the only woman on the board (Fig. 3). In the period 1982–87, 10% of contributors were women (women were 12% of lead authors). Most of the journal’s 10 most cited articles concern environmental conditions—air temperature, permafrost, glaciers, fjord ecosystems and snow—in Svalbard or conditions in the Arctic Ocean and contribute to the literature on climate change.
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The archipelago of Svalbard is a good example of an Arctic locale undergoing rapid changes on multiple levels. This contribution is a joint effort of three anthropologists with up-to-date ethnographic data from Svalbard (mostly Longyearbyen and Barentsburg) to frame and interpret interconnected changes. The processes impacting Svalbard are related to issues such as geopolitical interests, and increasing pressure by the Norwegian government to exercise presence and control over the territory. Our interpretations are based on a bottom-up approach, drawing on experiences living in the field. We identify three great ruptures in recent years – the avalanche of 2015, the gradual phasing out of mining enterprises and the COVID-19 pandemic – and show how they further impact, accelerate or highlight preexisting vulnerabilities in terms of socio-economic development, and environmental and climate change. We discuss the shift from coal mining to the industries of tourism, education, and research and development, and the resulting changed social and demographic structure of the settlements. Another facet is the complexity of environmental drivers of change and how they relate to the socio-economic ones. This article serves as an introductory text to the collection of articles published in Polar Record in 2021/2022 with the overarching theme “changing Svalbard”. Issues discussed range from socio-economic change and its implications for local populations including identity of place, through tourism (value creation, mediation, human–environment relations, environmental dilemmas, balancing contradictory trends), to security and risk perception, and environmental and climate change issues.
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The paper studies variability in mass concentration and elemental composition of near-surface aerosol in Moscow in March-April 2020. During the study period, noticeable fluctuations in concentration of surface aerosol caused by atypical synoptic and meteorological conditions were revealed. Sharp increase in PM10 particle concentration (March 25-29, April 13) is associated with anticyclonic activity and advection of air containing combustion aerosols from the areas with biomass fires. In April as a whole, anomalously low values of aerosol particle concentrations were recorded in comparison with the long-term average. The prevailing dry Arctic air masses significantly decreased the atmospheric aerosol pollution. The decrease of anthropogenic load during COVID-19 non-proliferation actions affected on daily variations of the surface aerosol, smoothing out its typical daily maximal concentration values. Results of spring experiment at the IAP RAS showed good agreement with the data of the Obuchi nearest station of State Budgetary Institution "Mosecomonitoring". We analyzed geochemical spectrum of chemical elements in aerosol and its variability under different synoptic and weather conditions in Moscow. Possible sources and sinks of aerosols are discussed taking into account both abnormal weather conditions and decreased anthropogenic load during a lockdown period in the spring of 2020.
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Antibodies to several pathogens were detected in the serum samples of nine polar bears (Ursus maritimus, Phipps, 1774) from areas of the Russian Arctic. Plasma was studied for antibodies to sixteen infectious and parasitic diseases using indirect Protein-A ELISA. It is known that when using ELISA, the interaction of antibodies with a heterologous antigen is possible due to immunological crossings between antigens. We investigated the plasma for the presence of antibodies to the major pathogens and for the presence of antibodies to pathogens, for which the cross-immunological reactions to these pathogens are described. For example, antibodies to the pathogens of opisthorchiasis, clonorchiasis, and ascariasis were found simultaneously in four polar bears. Antibodies to both anisakidosis and trichinellosis pathogens were found in six animals. The data obtained may also indicate a joint invasion by these pathogens. Unfortunately, due to the small number of animals sampled, it is impossible to carry out statistical processing of the data.
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As indications of ‘overtourism’ appear in the Arctic, tourism presents both management challenges and ethical dilemmas, applicable to broader discussions about sustainability within Polar tourism. I argue that mapping value relations can contribute to ongoing discussions for positive ways forwards and that the concept of degrowth holds promise in redirecting tourism to better serve the local community. Tourism has become the largest employer and most rapidly growing sector in Svalbard, taking over from coal mining. Longyearbyen is a small urban centre but nevertheless is the central hub where almost all tourism passes through. Indeed, tourism is how the majority of human relations with its lands, seas, human and non-human inhabitants will be enabled. This paper is centred on charting the transition of Longyearbyen to a ‘tourist town’. Drawing on local voices from 2013 to 2016 and 2019, I use a value-based analysis to assess the changes experienced in the context of wider systems of value at work in Svalbard.
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In this perspective on the future of the Arctic, we explore actions taken to mitigate warming and adapt to change since the Paris agreement on the temperature threshold that should not be exceeded in order to avoid dangerous interference with the climate system. Although 5 years may seem too short a time for implementation of major interventions, it actually is a considerable time span given the urgency at which we must act if we want to avoid crossing the 1.5 to <2 °C global warming threshold. Actions required include co-production of research exploring possible futures;supporting Indigenous rights holders’ and stakeholders’ discourse on desired futures;monitoring Arctic change;funding strategic, regional adaptation;and, deep decarbonization through transformation of the energy system coupled with negative carbon emissions. We are now in the decisive decade concerning the future we leave behind for the next generations. The Arctic’s future depends on global action, and in turn, the Arctic plays a critical role in the global future.
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Exploitation of oil and gas resources in the Arctic offshore is one of Russia’s key priorities in such areas as science, economy, and technology. Global trends, harsh climate conditions, fragile ecosystems, conditions of the pandemic and post-pandemic periods, price volatility, and the growing importance of the environmental factor require that the process of developing the Arctic’s hydrocarbon resources should become strategically sustainable. The paper provides a deep literature review on sustainability issues, sustainable development, strategic sustainability, and project efficiency in the Arctic offshore oil and gas sector. The paper analyzes the trends and conditions that substantiate the need to transform the traditional sustainability concept to meet new challenges and comply with new policies. Based on the analysis, the authors propose a definition of and a conceptual framework for strategic sustainability of oil and gas offshore projects in the Arctic.
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According to the forecasts made by IEA, BP, and Total in early 2021, the demand for hydrocarbons will continue for decades, and their share in the global energy balance will remain significant. Russia, as a key player in the energy market, is interested in maintaining and increasing hydrocarbon production, so further exploitation of the Arctic energy resources is an urgent issue. A large number of onshore oil and gas projects have been successfully implemented in the Arctic since the 1930s, while recently, special attention has been paid to the offshore energy resources and implementation of natural gas liquefaction projects. However, the implementation of oil and gas projects in the Arctic is characterized by a negative impact on the environment, which leads to a violation of the ecological balance in the Arctic, and affects the stability of its ecosystem, which is one of the most vulnerable ecosystems on the planet. The main goal of the present study is to understand how the implementation of oil and gas projects in the Arctic affects the ecosystem, to assess the significance of this process, and to find out what the state and business could do to minimize it. In the article, the authors analyze energy trends, provide brief information about important oil and gas projects being implemented in the Arctic region of Russia, and investigate the challenges of the oil and gas projects’ development and its negative impacts on the Arctic environment. The main contributions of this paper are the identification of all possible environmental risks and processes accompanying oil and gas production, and its qualitative analysis and recommendations for the state and business to reduce the negative impact of oil and gas projects on the Arctic ecosystem. The research methodology includes desk studies, risk management tools (such as risk analysis, registers, and maps), brainstorming, the expert method, systematization, comparative analysis, generalization, and grouping.